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Objective 1: Prioritization maps

On April 3rd 2021, Madagascar initiated the necessary steps to re-join COVAX. COVAX is a WHO led initiative to promote vaccine access equity to LMIC and is set up to provide enough doses to immunize x% of the population.

As in other countries, vaccine distribution and rollout will require prioritization of available doses to achieve the best possible protection for the population. Several lines of evidence suggest that priority should be given to healthcare workers and then to older adults which gives further support to announced priority rankings

UNICEF’s priority is to obtain maps based on available data to prioritize mobilization of healthcare workers in preparation for vaccination. Vaccination goes to healthcare workers and army first then should be prioritized in region with older population and with most cases

Cases (bivariate)

Deaths (bivariate)

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Modeling strategies

After talking with Tanjona:

SEIR to model the reduction of lives lost if available doses of vaccines are distributed to regions by prioritizing:

• Population size ( region with larger population receive more doses)
• Number of 60 years old residing in the region
• Number of cases detected in the region
• No prioritization : Sharing vaccines equally between 22 regions.

In each case vaccine allocation per region follows proportion per region. (e.g. Analamanga 14% of population, 18% of elderly, 66% of cases, 42% of deaths=> distribution of doses will follow the same of repartition) =>ideally a build a shiny app where users can set the number of vaccines available?

Vaccination administration within the region follows age priority in each region, we also assume that vaccines are 100% effective at reducing mortality from COVID-19

Vary national acceptance rate in elderly population

How to account for “imperfect testing”:“Unequal testing efforts between regions & under testing in general”?

Maybe include a shift in IFR (a la Ben).

Fake data plot

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